Modelling possible configurations for a new older persons rehabilitation ward


NHS Southampton City CCG, Solent NHS Trust

The problem:
This project supports NHS Southampton City CCG’s work to rationalise the estate at Southampton’s two community hospitals. The Royal South Hants and the Western Community Hospital both provide rehabilitation services for older people. The aim of this computer modelling study is to assist the CCG and Solent NHS Trust in the capacity planning and design of a new ward that pools the capacity for older people rehabilitation.

To reduce delayed transfers of care at University Hospital Southampton, the new ward must have enough beds to accommodate current and future demand. Pooling the two wards provides a total of 43 beds. The wards must also provide single sex accommodation for patients. There are two ways to manage single sex accommodation: multi-bedded bays and single rooms. Single rooms are very flexible, but are also more expensive to staff. Multi-bedded bays cheaper to staff, but are less flexible. Patients can be transferred between bays when necessary. To design of the most cost-effective and affordable mix of multi-bedded bays and single rooms is complex.

Modelling Objectives:

To help answer these questions in an evidence-based, systematic manner, we wish to test various bed number and bed configuration scenarios to ensure that there is sufficient “step-up/step-down” bed capacity to serve the Southampton health and care system in the medium and long term.

This study aims to:

  • Analyse patient data for existing wards
  • Generate simulation model of patients moving through the proposed ward
  • Run scenarios considering changes to i.e. the number of beds, the configuration of beds and demand (Increasing elderly population and reducing excess bed days)
  • Analyse implications of results

Note: The model will have the capacity to run these types of scenarios so that they can be explored theoretically without having an impact on patients.

Our solution:

CLAHRC Wessex is working with the Southampton City CCG to develop a simulation models of the flow of patients through the proposed ward. The model is populated with data from the occupancy of the current wards, to provide the arrival rate of patients and the range of lengths of stay to be expected in any combined future ward. Data on Excess bed days and population projections is being used to create possible future scenarios for testing with the model.

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